Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd71…1281
weather · 104 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$136 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$122 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 56
Open positions5
Markets (closed)99 / 104
Avg bet$30
Trades / day137.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 99 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$249
7 days−$122
14 days−$122
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$16 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $224 −$200 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $208 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $140 −$25 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $209 −$202 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$40 +847%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$40 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $78 −$76 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$23 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$35 +688%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$9 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$9 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$22 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$26 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$11 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$9 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$27 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$48 +483%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$12 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$3 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$59 +328%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 −$17 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$13 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$24 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$5 +239%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$27 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$4 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 −$6 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 5¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 2¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 19¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 19¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 18¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $91 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $90 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +36.6% +23.6% 43% 36% -13.1%
≤30d 99 +36.6% +23.6% 43% 36% -13.1%
≤90d 99 +36.6% +23.6% 43% 36% -13.1%
all 99 +36.6% +23.6% 43% 36% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover137.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.6% 36% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here +11.8% 31% -21.5%
15% +1.0% 26% -29.0%
20% -8.9% 23% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 622 history records