Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd73…4da1 sports 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,138 (-25%) realized −$14,163 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%72W / 292L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$715est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$633
7 days−$633
14 days−$633
30 days−$3,590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$11,077
other 34% −$3,333
crypto 0% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -17.1% -25.0% 12% 12% -49.3%
≤30d 123 -32.2% -38.6% 10% 10% -51.0%
≤90d 364 -26.8% -33.7% 20% 20% -33.8%
all 364 -26.8% -33.7% 20% 20% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 20% -33.8%
10% -40.1% 20% -40.1%
15% -45.9% 20% -45.9%
20% -51.2% 20% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$326 vs −$130 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$14,163
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses72 / 292
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$715
Open positions2
Markets (closed)364 / 366
History coverage71d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Avaí FC (-1.5) Avaí FC 12¢ 18¢ $58 $84 +$26 (+46%)
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 273 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 21 $51 +$502 +977%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 +$152 +149%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $292 −$287 -98%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists Jun 21 $47 −$46 -98%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ goals Jun 21 $48 −$46 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $36 −$35 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
John Yeboah: 2+ goals Jun 20 $47 −$46 -97%
John Yeboah: 1+ goals Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Gonzalo Plata: 2+ goals Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals Jun 20 $140 −$137 -98%
Tahith Chong: 2+ shots Jun 20 $96 −$94 -98%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $200 −$197 -98%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $166 −$163 -98%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $25 +$90 +360%
Spread: Andorra (-1.5) Jun 04 $13 +$47 +363%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $63 +$127 +203%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 04 $13 −$12 -97%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -97%
Will CR Flamengo vs. Coritiba FBC end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $497 −$483 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 −$97 -98%
Coritiba FBC leading at halftime? May 30 $101 −$98 -97%
Spread: Coritiba FBC (-1.5) May 30 $72 −$70 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $17 −$16 -97%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $151 −$147 -97%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5 May 29 $347 −$338 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina leading at halftime? May 29 $50 −$49 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $389 −$258 -66%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $159 −$155 -97%
CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 1.5 May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
América de Cali vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 0.5 May 29 $64 −$62 -98%
América de Cali vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 1.5 May 29 $128 −$125 -98%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $27 −$26 -98%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 3.5 May 28 $126 −$123 -97%
Carabobo FC leading at halftime? May 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: Both Teams to Score May 28 $509 −$500 -98%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 3.5 May 27 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? May 27 $71 −$70 -98%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Club Olimpia vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 4.5 May 27 $15 −$14 -97%
Audax CS Italiano leading at halftime? May 27 $13 −$12 -97%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Barracas Central: Draw at halftime? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Spread: Avaí FC (-1.5) BUY Avaí FC 12¢ $59 1h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $553 9h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $254 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $292 11h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $102 11h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $102 11h
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $102 11h
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $47 11h
Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals BUY Yes $51 11h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals BUY Yes $51 11h
Ritsu Dōan: 2+ goals BUY Yes $48 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $103 11h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 2.5 BUY Over $36 11h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $97 15h
John Yeboah: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $47 15h
John Yeboah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $102 15h
Gonzalo Plata: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $51 15h
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $140 15h
Tahith Chong: 2+ shots BUY Yes 39¢ $96 15h
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $177 16d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 16d
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $166 16d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $115 16d
Spread: Andorra (-1.5) SELL Andorra 95¢ $60 16d
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $190 16d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $24 16d
Spread: Andorra (-1.5) BUY Andorra 20¢ $13 16d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden $13 16d
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $25 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.11 · official $133.11 (match) · 537 history records