Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd73…63fc world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 58L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$21
politics 24% −$4
other 17% −$6
sports 16% +$16
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -3.0% -12.3% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 39 -1.5% -10.9% 28% 3% -9.7%
all 90 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage482d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $149 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $184 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $44 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $422 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $196 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $287 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $137 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $336 −$8 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $162 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $301 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $275 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $609 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $145 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $281 −$2 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $299 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $79 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $216 −$11 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $5 −$1 -29%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $18 −$5 -29%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $171 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $179 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $47 +$9 +18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $154 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $170 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $55 −$2 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $61 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $933 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $1,029 −$3 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $41 −$2 -5%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $935 +$3 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $934 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $934 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Dec 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 09 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $149 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $149 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $87 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $50 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $7 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $129 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $150 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $150 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $149 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $149 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $74 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $73 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $150 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $150 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $26 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $28 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $127 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $135 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records