Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd74…b73b other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$144 (-2%) realized −$152 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$241
14 days−$113
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$301
crypto 11% +$6
politics 9% −$411
sports 2% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.3% -18.0% 68% 42% -14.3%
≤30d 25 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 48% -11.4%
≤90d 26 -8.3% -17.1% 65% 46% -12.7%
all 26 -8.3% -17.1% 65% 46% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 46% -12.7%
10% -25.0% 35% -21.0%
15% -32.3% 31% -28.7%
20% -38.9% 15% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$512) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$102 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage73d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $51 $59 +$8 (+15%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $99 +$25 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $562 +$27 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $78 −$45 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $635 +$6 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $199 −$198 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $55 +$44 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $53 +$10 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $641 +$230 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $43 +$18 +42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $72 +$39 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $140 +$3 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $57 −$48 -84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $84 +$14 +17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $709 +$60 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $588 +$56 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $512 −$411 -80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$16 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $617 +$73 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $99 +$62 +63%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $49 −$33 -68%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $98 +$39 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $68 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $82 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $117 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 73¢ $111 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $562 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $99 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $32 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $635 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $78 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $199 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $53 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $43 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $133 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $509 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 50¢ $65 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $84 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $72 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $140 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $709 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $588 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.55 · official $242.45 (match) · 96 history records