Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd78…aeb1 politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$16
tech 1% $0
other 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 74 -1.8% -11.1% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage636d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Feb 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trevor Lawrence win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will John Barrasso be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
U.S. Recession in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC North? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $0 $0 -1%
Will Henry Cucalón win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Dec 19 $0 $0 -0%
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 19 $3 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -4%
Raj Rao announced as next BlackRock CEO? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Utah win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Braga win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kip Tom for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 12h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $48 21d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $48 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 29d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 30d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $48 43d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 44d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 47d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 47d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 72d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 72d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 72d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 85d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 85d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 85d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 96d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 96d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 101d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 101d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 104d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 104d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 107d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 107d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 112d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 112d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $50 120d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $50 120d
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL No 100¢ $48 122d
Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 100¢ $48 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records