Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbd7c…ee32 crypto 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$352 (+18%) realized +$359 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%34W / 69L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$391
14 days+$335
30 days+$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$292
other 29% −$35
sports 25% +$336
politics 3% −$42
economics 2% −$35
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +29.3% +17.0% 32% 32% +18.3%
≤30d 103 +24.5% +12.6% 33% 33% +14.3%
≤90d 103 +24.5% +12.6% 33% 33% +14.3%
all 103 +24.5% +12.6% 33% 33% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 33% +14.3%
10% +1.8% 32% +3.3%
15% -8.0% 30% -6.6%
20% -17.0% 29% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$15 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$359
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 69
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage19d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 35¢ 34¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $57 −$23 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$98 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$68 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$17 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$76 +1042%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$8 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$95 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $17 +$29 +165%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $10 +$43 +416%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$56 +366%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $15 +$93 +601%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 35¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.41 · official $19.27 (match) · 179 history records