Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd7d…c14e crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$626 (-4%) realized −$626 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%41W / 2L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$9
politics 39% −$639
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 88% 0% -9.4%
all 43 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 0% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -14.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -22.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -30.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$324 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$2,514
Realized−$626
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses41 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage614d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,302 $1,302 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,212 $1,212 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,215 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,306 −$8 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,264 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,245 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Feb 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Feb 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Feb 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $160 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 16 $256 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $582 +$1 +0%
Will Oleg Gaidukevich win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $132 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will Sergei Bobrikov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will Sergei Syrankov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5,020 −$640 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,302 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,212 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,298 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,306 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,215 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,264 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,245 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 106d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 106d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 106d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 106d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 118d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 118d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 118d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 275d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $3 275d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $4 275d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem BUY No 100¢ $5 275d
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $2 275d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY No 100¢ $2 275d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $2 275d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $2 275d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 99¢ $2 275d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 275d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $3 275d
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 275d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 275d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 275d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 275d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,514.39 · official $2,514.39 (match) · 90 history records