Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BD 0xbd7e…79fc other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$86per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 235d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-5.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤30d	1	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	1	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
all	3	+4.9%	-5.1%	67%	33%	-8.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.1%	33%	-8.6%
10%	-14.2%	0%	-17.4%
15%	-22.5%	0%	-25.3%
20%	-30.1%	0%	-32.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.85 per $1 lost it wins $7.85

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage

Net worth$228

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage235d

Avg bet$86

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$209	$209	−$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	97¢	98¢	$19	$19	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 21	$169	$0	-0%
USDT depeg in 2025?	Dec 25	$20	$0	+2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	Nov 07	$15	+$2	+13%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	36m
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$168	1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$169	5h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	BUY No	97¢	$19	178d
USDT depeg in 2025?	SELL No	100¢	$20	178d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	SELL Yes	95¢	$17	226d
USDT depeg in 2025?	BUY No	98¢	$20	227d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?	BUY Yes	84¢	$15	235d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.79 · official $227.79 (match) · 8 history records