Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BD 0xbd7f…fedf crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%44W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$4
crypto 20% +$2
other 9% $0
tech 4% +$1
politics 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses44 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage547d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $74 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? Apr 01 $79 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $76 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $76 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $33 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $59 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $63 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $43 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Wells win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $2,833 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $74 29d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 60d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $47 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March? BUY No 100¢ $79 92d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 121d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $76 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $9 148d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $76 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 180d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $43 181d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $26 241d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $47 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 271d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 272d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $49 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 301d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $63 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $11 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 332d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 100¢ $64 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $43 365d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $36 366d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.43 · official $89.43 (match) · 122 history records