Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd80…e316 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$333 (-58%) realized −$248 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$137
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$245
sports 30% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$65 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$248
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage17d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 34¢ $232 $147 −$85 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $47 −$47 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 11 $142 −$140 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $245 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $72 11d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $47 13d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $53 15d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $142 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.64 · official $151.02 · 6 history records