Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbd84…c161 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$5
other 7% −$2
politics 6% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 20 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.2%
all 33 -4.7% -13.8% 36% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -10.3%
10% -22.0% 3% -18.8%
15% -29.6% 3% -26.7%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage458d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 −$3 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $123 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $7 $0 +3%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $3 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $23 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $38 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $37 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.28 · official $37.92 (match) · 109 history records