Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbd84…f5a2 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$96 (-20%) realized −$98 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$7
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$12
sports 34% −$47
world 8% −$18
other 8% −$35
economics 4% +$2
politics 3% +$3
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.4% -1.9% 67% 67% +0.5%
≤30d 9 -13.0% -21.3% 56% 56% -16.4%
≤90d 17 -34.9% -41.1% 35% 35% -38.4%
all 17 -34.9% -41.1% 35% 35% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 35% -38.4%
10% -46.7% 12% -44.3%
15% -51.9% 12% -49.7%
20% -56.6% 12% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage38d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$22 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $40 −$18 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $26 −$21 -81%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 23 $5 −$3 -56%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? May 23 $10 −$3 -34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 20 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 16 $26 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 22¢ $21 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a dra BUY 3¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia BUY 5¢ $21 7d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY 9¢ $10 8d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY 5¢ $10 9d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 4¢ $10 9d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 5¢ $10 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $20 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $6 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 78¢ $18 23d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $33 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 64¢ $15 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $22 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.14 · official $22.14 (match) · 45 history records