Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd85…5c04 crypto 307 markets active 15h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$187 (-9%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%186W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$85
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$211
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -24.0% -31.2% 50% 42% -31.0%
≤30d 105 -20.3% -27.9% 53% 45% -26.8%
≤90d 307 -7.1% -16.0% 61% 54% -19.3%
all 307 -7.1% -16.0% 61% 54% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 54% -19.3%
10% -24.0% 45% -27.0%
15% -31.4% 34% -34.1%
20% -38.1% 24% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses186 / 121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)307 / 307
History coverage53d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 307 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 597 history records