Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd88…f00d other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$134 (-13%) realized −$128 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$7
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$21
other 48% −$65
crypto 3% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 46% -8.7%
≤30d 66 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 39% -18.4%
≤90d 66 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 39% -18.4%
all 66 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 39% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 39% -18.4%
10% -28.5% 36% -26.2%
15% -35.4% 29% -33.3%
20% -41.8% 18% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 38
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)66 / 72
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $20 +$25 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -53%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $81 +$39 +48%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -29%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$3 +31%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$6 +31%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$23 +226%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$15 +76%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $4 +$3 +80%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$10 -52%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$10 +38%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $20 −$15 -73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$4 +22%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 +$5 +59%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $19 −$11 -60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $27 +$12 +46%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 +$8 +16%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $32 +$12 +37%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$7 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $6 −$2 -34%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +36%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $120 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 6h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $59 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 8h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 16h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 52¢ $20 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 19h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 76¢ $20 20h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $10 20h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 21h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $10 22h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.41 · official $84.41 (match) · 140 history records