Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd8a…dacf sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate62%70W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$3
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.2% -7.6% 67% 33% -9.6%
≤30d 52 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 25% -9.8%
≤90d 112 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 28% -9.4%
all 112 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 28% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 28% -9.4%
10% -20.1% 13% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 5% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses70 / 42
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage63d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $270 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $3 +$1 +34%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $3 $0 -0%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $9 −$9 -99%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $1 −$1 -69%
Will England win? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 07 $10 +$1 +5%
Will India win? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $15 +$4 +27%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $3 $0 +16%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $2 $0 +15%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $10 $0 -5%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $5 +$1 +25%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Kent May 31 $4 $0 +5%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire May 31 $4 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $6 −$4 -60%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $14 +$1 +8%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $12 −$2 -15%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $27 $0 -1%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $12 $0 -1%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $21 +$2 +11%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands May 28 $10 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 27 $1 $0 +12%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 25 $5 $0 -0%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex May 25 $5 +$1 +16%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Rwanda May 25 $1 $0 +29%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 25 $5 $0 -0%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Derbyshire May 24 $5 $0 +3%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Sierra Le May 24 $5 $0 -3%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $17 +$1 +4%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Rwanda vs Ivory Coast May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $12 +$2 +16%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Mali May 23 $6 $0 -1%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Malta May 23 $3 $0 +5%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $3 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $4 $0 -10%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $8 $0 +1%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 20 $8 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $8 −$2 -22%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Croatia May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $30 26m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $30 29m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $30 32m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $30 34m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $30 35m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $30 39m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $30 41m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $30 46m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $30 47m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $30 51m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $30 53m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $30 55m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $30 57m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $30 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $30 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $30 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 98¢ $30 4h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 97¢ $30 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 33¢ $4 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 83¢ $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 73¢ $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL Australia 94¢ $4 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 95¢ $4 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $4 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $3 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $4 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 99¢ $4 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $3 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 95¢ $3 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 27¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records