Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BD 0xbd8a…f9bd other 601 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,143 (+3%) realized +$4,876 · open +$267
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%367W / 175L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$15,391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$702
14 days+$812
30 days+$1,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$597
politics 24% +$824
other 19% +$1,610
economics 9% +$694
crypto 7% +$1,213
culture 5% +$50
finance 2% −$32
tech 1% +$78
sports 0% −$57
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +5.9% -4.2% 71% 38% -6.2%
≤30d 85 +1.2% -8.5% 73% 29% -6.5%
≤90d 212 -5.8% -14.7% 68% 22% -7.4%
all 542 -2.2% -11.5% 68% 26% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 26% -6.9%
10% -20.0% 13% -15.8%
15% -27.7% 9% -24.0%
20% -34.8% 6% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$15,391
Realized+$4,876
Unrealized+$267
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses367 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions59
Markets (closed)542 / 601
History coverage195d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $4,575 $4,625 +$50 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $2,040 $2,012 −$27 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,208 $1,238 +$30 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $934 $996 +$63 (+7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $984 $984 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $964 $958 −$6 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 94¢ $859 $945 +$86 (+10%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $449 $491 +$42 (+9%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $301 $303 +$2 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $292 $289 −$2 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $243 $247 +$4 (+2%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $226 $226 −$0 (-0%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 91¢ $189 $215 +$27 (+14%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $214 $213 −$1 (-1%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $203 $206 +$4 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $184 $198 +$14 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $169 $158 −$11 (-7%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $129 $149 +$20 (+15%)
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $74 $84 +$10 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 58¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+4%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 39¢ 50¢ $39 $50 +$11 (+27%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 93¢ 78¢ $47 $39 −$8 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 72¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $324 +$51 +16%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $104 +$3 +3%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $335 +$11 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$2 +13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 +$3 +52%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $34 −$12 -35%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $8 −$5 -69%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $19 +$6 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $44 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $218 −$3 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -7%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 20 $94 −$5 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 $0 -11%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $213 +$42 +20%
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $42 +$18 +43%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $9,765 +$235 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $14 −$8 -58%
Will Uzbekistan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 18 $47 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $176 +$24 +14%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 17 $245 +$3 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $103 +$4 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $6,557 +$300 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 17 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 17 $71 −$23 -32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$2 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $204 +$46 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $91 +$34 +37%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $446 +$53 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $193 −$3 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $480 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 0m
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Norway 89¢ $22 2m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $985 23m
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 43m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 96¢ $76 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 96¢ $13 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $301 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 20h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 13¢ $3 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $7 20h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $197 23h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $8 25h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 67¢ $20 26h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $34 26h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $104 27h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $2 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 27h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 96¢ $575 28h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $118 32h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $0 34h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $16 34h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $0 34h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $0 37h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $42 37h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $8 41h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $0 41h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 87¢ $43 41h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $44 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,391.26 · official $15,391.04 (match) · 3065 history records