Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd8b…1ec7 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$480 (+7%) realized +$482 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$374
14 days+$486
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$615
sports 20% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -2.5% -11.8% 74% 42% -2.9%
≤30d 34 -13.3% -21.5% 62% 38% -2.4%
≤90d 34 -13.3% -21.5% 62% 38% -2.4%
all 34 -13.3% -21.5% 62% 38% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 38% -2.4%
10% -29.0% 29% -11.7%
15% -35.9% 18% -20.3%
20% -42.2% 6% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$45 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$482
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage12d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 89¢ 90¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $151 +$22 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $251 −$29 -12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $503 +$113 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $604 +$62 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $338 +$41 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $601 +$37 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $202 −$188 -93%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$22 -70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $633 +$172 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $261 +$23 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $552 +$56 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$59 +49%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$31 -62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$24 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$31 -76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$24 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $343 +$122 +36%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$52 -24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $59 +$3 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $202 +$47 +23%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $247 +$148 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$28 -63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $141 −$18 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 +$60 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 89¢ $50 7m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 41m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 42m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 91¢ $173 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $219 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 76¢ $50 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 89¢ $338 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $601 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.65 · official $327.65 (match) · 121 history records