Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd8c…dfbe
sports · 338 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
−$1,850 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,196 · open +$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$247
Realized−$2,196
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses171 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$728
Open positions1
Markets (closed)337 / 338
History coverage114d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 337 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$244
7 days−$1,720
14 days−$3,012
30 days−$729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 64¢ 84¢ $190 $247 +$58 (+30%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 57¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 69¢ 0¢ $283 $0 −$283 (-100%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Vici Gaming 39¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $275 $0 −$275 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 3¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BetBoom Team 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang Shuai Zhang 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage PARIVISION 75¢ 0¢ $800 $0 −$800 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Anyones Legend 70¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage LGD Gaming 42¢ 0¢ $516 $0 −$516 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 75¢ 0¢ $772 $0 −$772 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 45¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming 89¢ 0¢ $470 $0 −$470 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 1 Winner Tundra Esports 58¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Jiujiang: Heather Watson vs Kyoka Okamura Kyoka Okamura 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage PARIVISION 56¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sofia Kenin vs Bianca Andreescu Sofia Kenin 48¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels Chicago White Sox 38¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $46 +$127 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $57 +$34 +60%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $53 +$5 +9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $185 +$68 +37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 +$34 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$12 -58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $146 +$16 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $209 +$27 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $90 +$18 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $387 −$384 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 −$48 -32%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$85 +84%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $149 −$97 -65%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $189 −$76 -40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $273 +$264 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $262 −$164 -63%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $48 −$48 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $679 −$672 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $976 −$243 -25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $590 −$203 -34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $855 −$410 -48%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $175 +$79 +45%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $331 −$166 -50%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $431 +$302 +70%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $286 −$283 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $202 +$84 +41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $117 +$86 +74%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $43 −$42 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $98 −$56 -56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $136 −$134 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 04 $344 −$340 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $125 −$79 -64%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 03 $185 +$238 +129%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $137 +$49 +36%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $116 +$21 +18%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 03 $73 +$42 +58%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $55 −$55 -99%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $13 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 01 $279 −$275 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$25 +25%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 01 $317 +$173 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $100 +$7 +7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 May 31 $227 +$91 +40%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $690 −$232 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$980
crypto 8% −$799
other 1% −$359
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 83¢ $0 0m
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $192 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 72¢ $74 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $91 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $57 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 69¢ $57 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $53 9h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 99¢ $252 10h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 78¢ $101 10h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 60¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 100¢ $97 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 8¢ $9 12h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 66¢ $79 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 18¢ $20 13h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 64¢ $63 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $162 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $146 15h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $147 15h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $108 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $108 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $90 17h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 35¢ $90 17h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 39¢ $101 17h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $70 39h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 58¢ $70 39h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 80¢ $316 39h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 41¢ $66 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 42% -32.5%
≤30d 127 -6.7% -15.6% 53% 49% -10.2%
≤90d 193 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 47% -11.1%
all 337 -6.2% -15.2% 51% 47% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 47% -11.6%
10% -23.3% 40% -20.1%
15% -30.7% 34% -27.8%
20% -37.5% 25% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.41 · official $247.41 (match) · 801 history records