Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd8d…1471 crypto 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate97%272W / 7L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 7% -8.5%
≤30d 279 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 279 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 7% -8.5%
all 279 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 7% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 3% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 1% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses272 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)279 / 279
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 558 history records