Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd8f…6131 crypto 704 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$299 (-3%) realized −$306 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate70%495W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$209
14 days−$116
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$102
other 26% −$309
weather 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -36.4% -42.4% 25% 17% -27.3%
≤30d 89 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 36% -20.6%
≤90d 682 +1.0% -8.6% 71% 39% -13.5%
all 703 +1.1% -8.6% 70% 39% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 39% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 25% -21.7%
15% -25.3% 17% -29.3%
20% -32.6% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses495 / 208
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)703 / 704
History coverage92d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $78 +$143 +183%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $72 −$64 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $69 −$40 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $556 −$161 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $182 −$60 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $29 −$14 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$11 +529%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $106 +$122 +115%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $56 −$10 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $134 +$44 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $139 −$57 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$18 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $33 −$28 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $104 +$79 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$13 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $39 +$7 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $11 −$5 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $134 −$131 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $84 +$17 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$7 +115%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $207 −$192 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $103 −$60 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $17 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$3 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$32 +157%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $11 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $12 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$13 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $23 +$56 +242%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $168 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 44h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 44h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $15 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $52 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $52 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $72 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $39 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.91 · official $44.91 (match) · 2437 history records