Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd90…b8f8 other 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 212L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$40
sports 19% −$19
politics 8% −$10
culture 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 225 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage127d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $507 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $356 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $196 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $533 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $397 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $317 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $299 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $304 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $445 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $540 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $109 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $114 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $46 1h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 3h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 5h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 5h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $46 6h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 12h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 14h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $47 21h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $47 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 24h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 25h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 33h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 35h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 36h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $47 38h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 40h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 42h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 43h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 45h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 46h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.15 · official $46.15 (match) · 1326 history records