Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd91…7012 crypto 2118 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (212 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$552 (-76%) realized −$547 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%180W / 657L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day211.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$53
14 days−$38
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$38
other 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (212 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 525 -16.8% -24.7% 32% 32% -20.2%
≤30d 837 -22.7% -30.1% 22% 21% -25.7%
≤90d 837 -22.7% -30.1% 22% 21% -25.7%
all 837 -22.7% -30.1% 22% 21% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 21% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 21% -32.8%
15% -42.9% 20% -39.3%
20% -48.5% 20% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$547
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses180 / 657
Open positions1
Markets (closed)837 / 2118
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day211.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.03 (match) · 3500 history records