Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd91…b664 crypto 280 markets active 5d ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$360 (-10%) realized −$328 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%198W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$181
politics 10% −$103
sports 8% −$21
other 4% −$23
economics 1% −$46
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.4% +5.3% 100% 50% +4.4%
≤30d 57 -14.4% -22.5% 72% 12% -17.8%
≤90d 204 -14.2% -22.3% 71% 25% -18.4%
all 277 -11.5% -20.0% 71% 29% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -18.4%
10% -27.6% 16% -26.2%
15% -34.6% 8% -33.4%
20% -41.0% 3% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$328
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses198 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)277 / 280
History coverage159d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $55 $27 −$28 (-51%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-49%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 01 $16 −$16 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $58 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 31 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 31 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 31 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 31 $32 +$1 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 29 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 29 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 29 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 29 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $90 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $66 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 28 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 28 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 28 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 28 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $68 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 28 $120 −$3 -2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 26 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 26 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election? May 25 $105 +$39 +37%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $26 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 16d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 91¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.25 · official $32.25 (match) · 2078 history records