Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd92…3482 finance 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$614 (-7%) realized −$142 · open −$472
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate76%137W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$72
14 days−$1
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$64
crypto 22% +$175
other 14% −$518
tech 14% −$134
finance 10% −$44
economics 4% −$204
sports 2% −$38
politics 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.5% +10.9% 75% 75% +13.3%
≤30d 21 -6.0% -14.9% 76% 48% -5.7%
≤90d 83 -7.0% -15.9% 75% 35% -6.8%
all 181 -7.4% -16.2% 76% 34% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 34% -12.3%
10% -24.2% 15% -20.7%
15% -31.5% 8% -28.4%
20% -38.2% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$24 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$472
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses137 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)181 / 193
History coverage147d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes $195 $134 −$60 (-31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? No 98¢ 89¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ $65 $32 −$33 (-51%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $55 $23 −$32 (-57%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 83¢ 20¢ $83 $20 −$63 (-76%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 52¢ $300 $20 −$280 (-93%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $100 +$28 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $96 +$34 +35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$17 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $50 +$4 +7%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 08 $50 +$6 +11%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $75 +$5 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $7 −$7 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $20 +$3 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 26 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $95 +$41 +44%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? May 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $40 +$3 +7%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 20 $9 $0 +3%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 20 $125 +$6 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $41 +$8 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 20 $46 +$21 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18? May 19 $75 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 18 $88 +$2 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $60 +$6 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $76 +$13 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 09 $195 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $186 +$31 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 1? May 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1? May 01 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 01 $35 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 01 $20 −$16 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 01 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 01 $14 −$10 -69%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 01 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 01 $40 −$13 -33%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $143 +$4 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April? May 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $73 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $50 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $150 1h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 80¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $55 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $51 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $153 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $10 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 6d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 SELL No 96¢ $50 6d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $40 11d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 BUY No 96¢ $50 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $117 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $54 11d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 93¢ $56 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 22d
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $50 22d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $50 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $50 22d
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M SELL Yes $0 23d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $26 23d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $12 23d
Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $555.28 · official $558.96 (match) · 389 history records