Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbd92…355f crypto 720 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$325 (-3%) realized −$325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%246W / 709L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day96.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$943
other 1% −$17
sports 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 -76.9% -79.1% 6% 6% -71.0%
≤30d 579 -44.3% -49.6% 22% 19% -30.9%
≤90d 955 -36.6% -42.6% 26% 23% -29.2%
all 955 -36.6% -42.6% 26% 23% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.6% 23% -29.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.1% 20% -36.0%
15% -53.1% 18% -42.1%
20% -57.7% 16% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses246 / 709
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)955 / 720
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day96.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 955 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$8 -141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$12 -576%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $64 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $48 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records