Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd94…0f01 crypto 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 701d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$575 (-5%) realized −$575 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$83
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$358
other 5% −$526
world 1% −$42
politics 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +67.5% +51.5% 20% 20% +41.1%
≤30d 5 +67.5% +51.5% 20% 20% +41.1%
≤90d 37 -55.1% -59.4% 8% 8% -78.9%
all 115 -28.5% -35.3% 11% 11% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 11% -34.3%
10% -41.5% 11% -40.6%
15% -47.2% 11% -46.3%
20% -52.3% 11% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$591 vs −$85 · ×6.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

701d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 102
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 117
History coverage701d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $94 $117 +$23 (+25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 7¢ 5¢ $93 $70 −$23 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$203 +738%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $99 −$92 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $17 −$16 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 10 $50 −$47 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 10 $50 −$47 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $20 +$80 +402%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 03 $91 −$85 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 25 $33 −$30 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 25 $37 −$34 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? Apr 24 $32 −$30 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $131 −$122 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $29 −$27 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $171 −$160 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20? Apr 19 $156 −$147 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Apr 19 $97 −$93 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $128 −$120 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $89 −$83 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $127 −$118 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $137 −$128 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Apr 12 $613 −$572 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 2 Apr 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 2 Apr 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? Apr 12 $145 −$138 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $270 −$72 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 6? Apr 05 $249 −$232 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? Apr 05 $193 −$182 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $49 −$46 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $52 −$48 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Mar 31 $107 −$107 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 31? Mar 30 $155 −$155 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 30? Mar 29 $376 −$372 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30? Mar 29 $194 −$192 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 23? Mar 25 $183 +$407 +222%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 23? Mar 22 $107 −$106 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $47 −$47 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 18? Mar 17 $162 −$161 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 17? Mar 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 16? Mar 16 $184 −$183 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 16? Mar 15 $141 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 16? Mar 15 $95 −$95 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $212 −$212 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 7¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY No 7¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $231 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 5¢ $99 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? BUY No 0¢ $17 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? BUY No 31¢ $50 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? BUY No 3¢ $23 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? BUY No 3¢ $68 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? BUY No 3¢ $33 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? BUY No 1¢ $37 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? BUY No 1¢ $32 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $131 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23? BUY No 1¢ $29 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 23? BUY No 6¢ $171 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20? BUY No 20¢ $156 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $97 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 17? BUY No 1¢ $3 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? BUY No 21¢ $128 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $89 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $127 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? BUY No 4¢ $137 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? BUY No 7¢ $356 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $145 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.91 · official $186.91 (match) · 161 history records