Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BD 0xbd99…5ae1 crypto 60 markets active 9h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%37W / 21L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$2
sports 19% +$1
other 12% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +3.4% -6.5% 65% 54% -6.9%
≤30d 58 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 53% -7.9%
≤90d 58 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 53% -7.9%
all 58 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 53% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 53% -7.9%
10% -16.9% 36% -16.7%
15% -24.9% 31% -24.8%
20% -32.3% 19% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses37 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $2 +$1 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +162%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $2 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 21h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 21h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 31h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $4 32h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $2 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 44h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 63¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 43¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.05 · official $1.05 (match) · 115 history records