Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

BD 0xbd9f…c675 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$283 (+62%) realized +$308 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +132% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +101% what you keep after slip

Net edge+101%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+109.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+131.6%	+109.5%	71%	71%	+49.7%
≤30d	7	+131.6%	+109.5%	71%	71%	+49.7%
≤90d	7	+131.6%	+109.5%	71%	71%	+49.7%
all	7	+131.6%	+109.5%	71%	71%	+49.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+109.5%	71%	+49.7%
10%	+89.5%	71%	+35.4%
15%	+71.2%	71%	+22.3%
20%	+54.4%	43%	+10.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +66% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +132% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$76 vs −$50 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.78 per $1 lost it wins $3.78

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$308

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$26	+$67	+262%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$77	−$75	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$26	+$74	+291%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$26	+$121	+474%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$148	+$68	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$100	+$48	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$26	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$26	7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$26	10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	25¢	$26	22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$26	34h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$26	34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$148	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$100	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 14 history records