Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbda1…827f weather 336 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$699 (-0%) realized −$341 · open −$358
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%81W / 319L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$791per market
Trades / day62.8pace
Fees−$3,413est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$9,258
weather 14% −$151
other 3% −$4,866
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -76.0% -78.3% 8% 8% -18.8%
≤30d 216 -55.2% -59.4% 19% 19% -12.5%
≤90d 400 -54.4% -58.7% 20% 20% -11.2%
all 400 -54.4% -58.7% 20% 20% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.7% 20% -11.2%
10% -62.7% 16% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -66.3% 15% -27.4%
20% -69.6% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -54% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,691 vs −$445 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$4,406
Realized−$341
Unrealized−$358
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses81 / 319
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$3,413
Open positions2
Markets (closed)400 / 336
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$791
Trades / day62.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2,894 $2,653 −$241 (-8%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,870 $1,753 −$117 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 312 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 15? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21? Jun 17 $735 −$735 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 19? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 21? Jun 17 $193 −$193 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Jun 17 $558 −$558 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 12? Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 20? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 14? Jun 17 $194 −$194 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on April 13? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 23? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on April 23? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 13? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 12? Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22? Jun 17 $567 −$567 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13? Jun 17 $233 −$233 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 14? Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 19? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 23? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13? Jun 17 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 21? Jun 17 $876 −$876 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 12? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 22? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 21? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 17 $234 −$234 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 23? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C or higher on April 12? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 17? Jun 17 $449 −$449 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 19? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 23? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 12? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 12? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on April 22? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on April 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 13? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 12? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20? Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12? Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 23? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 21? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 20? Jun 17 $753 −$753 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 23? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $80 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,018 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $301 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 23¢ $453 5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 23¢ $1,023 5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 23¢ $1,023 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $193 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $256 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $512 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,405.77 · official $4,405.77 (match) · 3500 history records