trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 83¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 10 | $18 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 10 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 07 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 06 | $30 | −$1 | -3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $15 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jul 18 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Jun 28 | $19 | +$1 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? | Jun 09 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? | Apr 20 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 20 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's | Apr 20 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president | Apr 19 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the SPD be part of the next German government? | Apr 18 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | Apr 17 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? | Apr 16 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.1% | -9.7% | 50% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 56% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 56% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 23 | -3.7% | -12.9% | 57% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.9% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -21.2% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -28.8% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -35.8% | 0% | -33.2% |