Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdad…1b7f other 41 markets active 3d ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$4
other 30% +$1
sports 9% +$2
politics 8% $0
weather 6% −$2
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 14% -8.4%
≤90d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 14% -8.4%
all 41 -2.8% -12.1% 46% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 7% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage443d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $53 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 15 $1 $0 +53%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $18 $0 -1%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 27 $21 $0 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win a seat in Saskatchewan? Apr 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 29 $27 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $13 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $21 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $24 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $45 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $43 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $40 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $7 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $30 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $32 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $18 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $10 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes $0 338d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $19 356d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 376d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $18 391d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 391d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records