Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdb0…c732 sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$3
politics 23% −$3
other 19% −$1
economics 11% −$2
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 3 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 148 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage161d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $215 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 12d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $56 23d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $57 24d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $44 37d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 37d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $53 124d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $53 124d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 124d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 124d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 124d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $53 124d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 124d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 124d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 124d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 124d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 124d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 124d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $50 124d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $50 124d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $8 124d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $8 124d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $49 124d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $49 124d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? SELL No 94¢ $29 124d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $27 124d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $27 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $9 124d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? SELL No 94¢ $12 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.53 · official $44.53 (match) · 534 history records