Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdb1…1b46 crypto 768 markets active 7h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate74%566W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$19
14 days−$12
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$40
weather 3% +$4
other 0% −$2
world 0% −$2
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 459 -2.8% -12.1% 83% 25% -11.2%
≤30d 542 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 30% -12.4%
≤90d 758 -1.3% -10.7% 74% 37% -11.6%
all 768 -1.4% -10.8% 74% 36% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 36% -11.7%
10% -19.3% 17% -20.2%
15% -27.1% 11% -27.9%
20% -34.3% 9% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses566 / 202
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)768 / 768
History coverage120d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 768 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 1923 history records