Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdb6…2146
politics · 128 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$66
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 71
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions45
Markets (closed)83 / 128
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 45 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? No 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +531%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? May 29 $1 $0 +40%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in April? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Pope Leo XIV in April? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ahmed al-Sharaa in April? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 +$41 +3933%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $1 +$3 +291%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $1 +$4 +365%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conferenc Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 32% +$8
world 24% −$37
other 15% +$24
sports 14% −$2
crypto 8% −$11
economics 3% +$4
culture 2% −$5
finance 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.2% -4.8% 17% 17% -1.7%
≤30d 39 -26.4% -33.4% 8% 8% -60.8%
≤90d 83 -24.7% -31.9% 14% 13% -26.0%
all 83 -24.7% -31.9% 14% 13% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 13% -26.0%
10% -38.4% 13% -33.1%
15% -44.4% 13% -39.6%
20% -49.8% 12% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.12 · official $66.12 (match) · 247 history records