Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbdb6…79ee tech 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 65% $0
other 22% −$1
crypto 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+70.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +88.0% +70.1% 67% 67% +66.1%
≤30d 3 +88.0% +70.1% 67% 67% +66.1%
≤90d 3 +88.0% +70.1% 67% 67% +66.1%
all 3 +88.0% +70.1% 67% 67% +66.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.1% 67% +66.1%
10% +53.8% 67% +50.2%
15% +39.0% 67% +35.7%
20% +25.4% 67% +22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.88 per $1 lost it wins $3.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 49¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$9 +148%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.44 · official $29.44 (match) · 11 history records