Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdb9…1418 crypto 840 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,374 (+3%) realized +$5,375 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate66%554W / 283L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$119
14 days−$27
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$5,637
crypto 2% −$153
world 1% −$551
politics 1% +$348
sports 0% +$52
tech 0% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -15.4% -23.5% 56% 14% -17.8%
≤30d 145 -10.6% -19.1% 61% 15% -13.8%
≤90d 634 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 21% -28.5%
all 837 +2.1% -7.7% 66% 23% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 23% -7.2%
10% -16.5% 14% -16.1%
15% -24.6% 11% -24.2%
20% -32.0% 8% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$68 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$5,375
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses554 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)837 / 840
History coverage205d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 837 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Under 98¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Saudi Arabia 95¢ 91¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Under 94¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) Jun 21 $53 +$2 +4%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $29 +$3 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $28 +$1 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $8 −$7 -92%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $25 −$18 -72%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $13 −$4 -27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $31 −$2 -5%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $17 −$15 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$2 -22%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $9 +$3 +36%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $33 +$3 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $8 +$1 +16%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$1 +6%
Spread: United States (-4.5) Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $91 +$13 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $132 −$22 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$8 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $56 −$5 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $132 −$27 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $152 −$36 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $176 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $109 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$4 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $134 +$36 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $53 −$3 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $138 +$22 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $66 +$41 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $49 +$15 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 95¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $35 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 95¢ $5 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $5 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $10 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $10 2h
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $10 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 96¢ $53 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $29 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $18 11h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 97¢ $20 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Sweden 5¢ $1 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 60¢ $8 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 24¢ $7 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Sweden 31¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $9 14h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Sweden 61¢ $8 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $9 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $20 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $30 14h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $10 14h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $10 14h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 75¢ $3 14h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals SELL No 11¢ $2 14h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $17 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.23 · official $55.23 (match) · 2640 history records