Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BD 0xbdbb…084e world 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,874 (+7%) realized +$21,830 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%90W / 70L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,942per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,641
7 days+$4,521
14 days+$5,456
30 days+$8,235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$9,051
other 13% +$3,502
crypto 10% +$2,410
finance 5% −$1,368
sports 3% +$628
politics 3% +$2,964
economics 2% +$392
tech 0% +$349
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.8% -15.7% 53% 18% +5.1%
≤30d 54 +1.6% -8.1% 59% 30% -2.9%
≤90d 124 +4.4% -5.6% 60% 35% -4.4%
all 160 +3.4% -6.5% 56% 35% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 35% -4.3%
10% -15.4% 21% -13.5%
15% ← realistic here -23.6% 14% -21.8%
20% -31.1% 9% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,272) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$387 vs −$245 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$629
Realized+$21,830
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses90 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions14
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$1,942
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $380 $394 +$14 (+4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $203 $235 +$32 (+16%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $1,385 −$421 -30%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $311 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $148 +$172 +116%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $106 −$44 -42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $6,319 +$3,096 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8,819 +$1,821 +21%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $876 +$16 +2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,495 −$78 -3%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $665 −$155 -23%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,982 +$28 +1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $250 −$56 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,175 +$99 +8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,037 +$18 +1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $325 +$25 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,204 +$168 +5%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $303 −$9 -3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $600 +$16 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $810 +$323 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $114 +$18 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $490 −$110 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,063 +$167 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $726 −$143 -20%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $400 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $100 −$6 -6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $982 −$53 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,484 −$1,252 -84%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 06 $101 −$3 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $25,889 +$1,818 +7%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,543 +$249 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $13,656 −$87 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 29 $2,233 −$110 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $1,134 +$568 +50%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $179 −$102 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $1,322 −$366 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $410 −$110 -27%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $717 +$488 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $943 +$230 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $200 +$9 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $615 +$467 +76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $3,593 +$151 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $290 +$70 +24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $360 −$29 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $2,448 +$187 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $3,100 +$207 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,500 +$267 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 22 $5,700 +$60 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $549 6m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $21 12m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $305 17m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $126 17m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $158 30m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $16 40m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $20 42m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 43m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $3 43m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $190 45m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $390 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $38 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $30 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $15 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $480 57m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 55¢ $313 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 55¢ $153 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 55¢ $122 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 53¢ $36 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $46 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $629.01 · official $627.51 (match) · 3500 history records