Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdbc…dc89 crypto 116 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate53%62W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day67.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$11
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 27% -12.9%
≤30d 116 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 29% -14.8%
≤90d 116 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 29% -14.8%
all 116 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 29% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 29% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 11% -23.0%
15% -33.8% 7% -30.4%
20% -40.3% 3% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses62 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day67.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 424 history records