Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdbc…8d9f other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$137 (-25%) realized −$142 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%5W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$151
sports 28% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -58.7% -62.7% 18% 14% -38.4%
≤30d 28 -58.7% -62.7% 18% 14% -38.4%
≤90d 28 -58.7% -62.7% 18% 14% -38.4%
all 28 -58.7% -62.7% 18% 14% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.7% 14% -38.4%
10% -66.2% 14% -44.3%
15% -69.5% 11% -49.7%
20% -72.5% 11% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses5 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$37 +72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -65%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$15 +24%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $76 +$47 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -83%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$42 +414%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -83%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $87 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes $6 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 5h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $51 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $1 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL $1 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $76 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY $5 18h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 24¢ $18 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY $21 28h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes $10 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 29h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $5 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $5 29h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $21 30h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 31h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa $2 34h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $11 34h
South Africa leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 35h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 35h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $9.55 (match) · 41 history records