Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdbd…ce07 crypto 628 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,257 (-4%) realized −$1,257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%343W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$237
7 days−$218
14 days−$1,370
30 days−$1,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,262
sports 0% −$120
other 0% −$5
politics 0% −$10
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -32.5% -38.9% 38% 38% -75.1%
≤30d 226 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 51% -16.7%
≤90d 628 -10.5% -19.0% 55% 48% -17.6%
all 628 -10.5% -19.0% 55% 48% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 48% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 40% -25.5%
15% -33.8% 34% -32.7%
20% -40.3% 29% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$35 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses343 / 285
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)628 / 628
History coverage49d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 628 Trades
no open positions (240 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $160 −$155 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$9 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $385 −$375 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $168 −$163 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$74 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $172 +$150 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$10 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $495 +$161 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$44 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $670 −$650 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$124 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$36 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$42 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$37 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $88 +$37 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$15 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$116 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$57 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$48 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$56 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $56 +$40 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$36 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $57 +$46 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $122 +$91 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$63 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $168 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $76 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $24 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1570 history records