Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdbe…5249 crypto 429 markets active 1d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,676 (-2%) realized −$1,676 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%192W / 237L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,232
7 days−$2,137
14 days−$1,978
30 days−$1,978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$1,013
sports 9% −$483
other 1% −$913
world 1% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -20.1% -27.7% 38% 34% -36.5%
≤30d 86 -17.2% -25.1% 40% 34% -30.7%
≤90d 164 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 35% -22.5%
all 429 -9.2% -17.9% 45% 38% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 38% -13.0%
10% -25.7% 32% -21.3%
15% -32.9% 25% -28.9%
20% -39.5% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$86 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,676
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses192 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)429 / 429
History coverage156d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 429 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $530 −$530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$207 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $878 −$141 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $190 −$167 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$37 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$89 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $105 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $235 −$104 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$50 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $125 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$26 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$101 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$90 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $210 −$161 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$100 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $240 −$206 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$74 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $144 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $95 −$84 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$34 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$48 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$52 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $109 +$43 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $58 +$61 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $114 −$36 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $168 +$51 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $89 −$22 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $131 −$123 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $178 +$106 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $69 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $196 +$124 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $406 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $117 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $207 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $738 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $878 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $24 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $23 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $122 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $68 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $60 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $131 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $84 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $85 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $187 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1523 history records