Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdbf…1585
crypto · 382 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,546 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,439 · open −$107
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,987
Realized−$1,439
Unrealized−$107
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses157 / 223
Open positions34
Markets (closed)380 / 382
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2253.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 34 History 380 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,439
7 days−$1,439
14 days−$1,439
30 days−$1,439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? No 95¢ 100¢ $498 $522 +$24 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 60¢ $473 $485 +$13 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Yes 46¢ 95¢ $100 $206 +$106 (+106%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? No 98¢ 99¢ $198 $202 +$4 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 58¢ 100¢ $100 $171 +$72 (+72%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $100 $170 +$70 (+70%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Yes 54¢ 92¢ $99 $166 +$68 (+69%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $100 $158 +$58 (+58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 55¢ 78¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 71¢ 100¢ $96 $136 +$40 (+41%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 54¢ 100¢ $69 $128 +$59 (+86%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Yes 66¢ 84¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $90 $120 +$30 (+33%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $68 $115 +$47 (+70%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 20¢ 100¢ $22 $112 +$90 (+402%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Yes 50¢ 84¢ $66 $111 +$45 (+68%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 85¢ 93¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 52¢ 96¢ $59 $109 +$51 (+87%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 60¢ 74¢ $88 $109 +$21 (+24%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 97¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Up 68¢ 64¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 55¢ 96¢ $47 $82 +$35 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$8 +75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $178 −$25 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $163 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $205 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $142 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $108 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $191 −$17 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $202 −$24 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $186 +$37 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $103 +$99 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $58 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $60 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $68 −$20 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $73 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $132 −$19 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $89 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $125 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $155 −$27 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $192 −$41 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $202 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $199 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $198 −$17 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $129 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $84 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $137 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $199 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $179 −$39 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$1,159
other 8% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $14 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 17m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 69¢ $39 20m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 68¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 380 -5.0% -14.1% 41% 31% -15.4%
≤30d 380 -5.0% -14.1% 41% 31% -15.4%
≤90d 380 -5.0% -14.1% 41% 31% -15.4%
all 380 -5.0% -14.1% 41% 31% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2253.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 31% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 25% -23.5%
15% -29.8% 21% -30.9%
20% -36.7% 15% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,987.19 · official $4,972.14 (match) · 3500 history records