Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbdbf…4b99 sports 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+1%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate70%61W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$7
politics 30% −$27
sports 9% +$144
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 87 +7.4% -2.9% 70% 25% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 25% -8.5%
10% -12.2% 25% -17.3%
15% -20.6% 23% -25.3%
20% -28.4% 23% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses61 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage603d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? May 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 9? May 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? Mar 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 15 $208 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $201 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? Mar 02 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 26 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 4? Feb 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 26? Jan 29 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 31? Jan 05 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on December 16? Dec 17 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11? Dec 12 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 8? Dec 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 2? Dec 03 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 29? Dec 01 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 21? Nov 22 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 11? Nov 12 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 8? Nov 10 $180 $0 +0%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Nov 01 $23 +$6 +27%
UTEP vs. Kennesaw State Oct 29 $15 +$4 +28%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 28 $23 +$12 +54%
Vikings vs. Chargers Oct 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $33 $0 +1%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Oct 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Steelers vs. Bengals Oct 17 $14 +$32 +233%
Spread: Delaware Blue Hens (-3.5) Oct 16 $28 +$18 +63%
Eagles vs. Giants Oct 10 $15 +$53 +354%
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Oct 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Mariners vs. Tigers Oct 09 $20 +$20 +100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Dodgers vs. Phillies Oct 07 $14 +$12 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $51 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $51 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $51 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $102 49d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $103 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 99¢ $104 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $101 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $102 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $102 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $208 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $203 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $201 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $205 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $205 123d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? BUY No 100¢ $203 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $200 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $200 144d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $200 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $200 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $199 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 13? BUY No 100¢ $197 167d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $197 181d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 19? BUY No 100¢ $197 192d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 18? BUY No 100¢ $197 194d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on December 16? BUY No 100¢ $198 195d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $202 200d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.41 · official $51.41 (match) · 198 history records