Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdc0…2041
crypto · 93 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$588 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$251 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 93
History coverage8d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 1 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days+$258
14 days+$251
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 44¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+127%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 57¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 59¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1,513 $0 −$1,513 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% +$446
crypto 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 54% -5.7%
≤30d 110 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 53% -5.8%
≤90d 110 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 53% -5.8%
all 110 -8.6% -17.3% 54% 53% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 53% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 52% -14.8%
15% -32.4% 52% -23.0%
20% -39.1% 50% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.76 · official $28.87 (match) · 589 history records