Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdc2…b720 other 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$149 (-7%) realized −$16 · open −$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%44W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$101
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$371
sports 13% +$76
world 4% +$50
crypto 3% −$33
politics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -8.3% -17.0% 18% 18% -15.1%
≤30d 222 -9.4% -18.0% 20% 20% -17.4%
≤90d 222 -9.4% -18.0% 20% 20% -17.4%
all 222 -9.4% -18.0% 20% 20% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 20% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 20% -25.3%
15% -33.0% 20% -32.5%
20% -39.6% 20% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$8 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses44 / 178
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions33
Markets (closed)222 / 263
History coverage8d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 52¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $34 $27 −$7 (-21%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $34 $6 −$28 (-81%)
Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Yes 12¢ 15¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 21¢ 9¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Maximiliano Araújo: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 +$21 +417%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 +$112 +1090%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 +$17 +325%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 21 $27 −$20 -74%
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Dani Olmo: 2+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Dani Olmo: 2+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $10 +$26 +255%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$44 +859%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 +$16 +307%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$56 +546%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 2h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 2h
Maximiliano Araújo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 35¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.49 · official $265.50 (match) · 360 history records