Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbdc2…e7c9 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,018 (+35%) realized +$1,019 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate79%19W / 5L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,017
other 3% −$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +26.1% +14.1% 100% 50% +2.1%
≤90d 4 +13.3% +2.5% 75% 50% +40.1%
all 24 +24.4% +12.5% 79% 75% +23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 75% +23.7%
10% +1.8% 58% +11.8%
15% -8.1% 46% +1.0%
20% -17.1% 38% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$102 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$1,019
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses19 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage216d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 66¢ 64¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $12 +$6 +50%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $68 −$3 -5%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 06 $50 +$50 +101%
Flames vs. Rangers Mar 10 $160 −$160 -100%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 10 $73 +$86 +117%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Mar 05 $52 +$21 +41%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Feb 02 $304 +$239 +79%
Suns vs. 76ers Jan 30 $152 +$152 +100%
Canucks vs. Blue Jackets Jan 16 $404 +$270 +67%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jan 15 $170 +$235 +138%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 13 $102 +$68 +67%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $194 +$152 +79%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $5 +$1 +11%
Jets vs. Red Wings Jan 07 $102 +$87 +85%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 25 $131 −$131 -100%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Dec 25 $101 +$30 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Stars vs. Jets Dec 09 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons Dec 09 $163 +$57 +35%
Wizards vs. 76ers Dec 05 $139 +$24 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Dec 02 $105 +$33 +32%
Wizards vs. Bulls Nov 26 $96 +$14 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 66¢ $47 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $12 11d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $43 11d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $42 37d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $59 51d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $68 51d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 49¢ $50 62d
Flames vs. Rangers BUY Flames 47¢ $160 108d
Jazz vs. Wizards BUY Jazz 46¢ $73 113d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz BUY Trail Blazers 71¢ $52 134d
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 56¢ $304 147d
Suns vs. 76ers BUY Suns 50¢ $152 157d
Canucks vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 60¢ $404 162d
Timberwolves vs. Bucks BUY Timberwolves 42¢ $170 164d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $102 167d
Raptors vs. Hornets BUY Raptors 56¢ $194 170d
Jets vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 54¢ $102 177d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 48¢ $131 183d
Hornets vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $101 186d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $100 192d
Stars vs. Jets BUY Jets 45¢ $116 199d
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 74¢ $163 203d
Wizards vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 85¢ $139 206d
Timberwolves vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 76¢ $105 212d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 90¢ $5 212d
Wizards vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 87¢ $96 216d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.15 · official $45.15 (match) · 45 history records