Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BD 0xbdd0…036c other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,353 (-28%) realized −$1,353 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$692per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$239
sports 32% −$1,388
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -59.5% -63.3% 0% 0% -51.2%
≤30d 6 -59.5% -63.3% 0% 0% -51.2%
≤90d 6 -59.5% -63.3% 0% 0% -51.2%
all 6 -59.5% -63.3% 0% 0% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.3% 0% -51.2%
10% -66.8% 0% -55.9%
15% -70.0% 0% -60.1%
20% -73.0% 0% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$271 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,353
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$692
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,811 −$80 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $163 −$159 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $308 −$145 -47%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $137 −$134 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,124 −$1,109 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1,270.00 · 16 history records