Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdd1…1692 crypto 144 markets active 7d ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%76W / 68L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$248
30 days−$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$13
other 25% +$36
crypto 16% −$35
weather 4% −$4
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -92.9% -93.6% 0% 0% -93.1%
≤30d 114 -30.6% -37.2% 42% 32% -42.1%
≤90d 114 -30.6% -37.2% 42% 32% -42.1%
all 144 -3.7% -12.9% 53% 45% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 45% -8.3%
10% -21.2% 40% -17.1%
15% -28.8% 34% -25.1%
20% -35.8% 23% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses76 / 68
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage158d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $45 −$21 -48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -70%
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$10 -50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 +$8 +20%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $38 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +63%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 $0 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 6¢ $0 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 16¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 3¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $4 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 6¢ $4 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 7¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 87¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $3 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 14¢ $19 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 11¢ $3 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 11¢ $5 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $0 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $5 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 7d
Germany to win the second half? SELL No 13¢ $2 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 423 history records