Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:21:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbdd2…75a3 crypto 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$595 (-44%) realized −$595 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%132W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$90
14 days−$590
30 days−$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$580
crypto 45% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.9% -29.4% 40% 40% -43.1%
≤30d 6 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -81.4%
≤90d 37 -17.8% -25.6% 49% 43% -76.0%
all 243 -5.8% -14.8% 54% 51% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 51% -51.1%
10% -23.0% 46% -55.8%
15% -30.4% 38% -60.0%
20% -37.2% 21% -63.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$595
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses132 / 111
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage133d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $219 −$80 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$3 +81%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 13 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 13 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 13 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 13 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 07 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 07 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 06 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 06 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 25 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 25 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 25 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 06 $8 −$6 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 06 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 06 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 05 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 05 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 27 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 27 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 27 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $139 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $219 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $101 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 19d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $35 20d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $266 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 706 history records