Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbdd4…1141
crypto · 14 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$231 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$321 · open −$90
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,315
Realized+$321
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage24d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 4 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$393
7 days+$393
14 days+$321
30 days+$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Down 54¢ 64¢ $663 $778 +$115 (+17%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Up 56¢ 51¢ $787 $719 −$67 (-9%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Down 40¢ 49¢ $486 $590 +$103 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Up 44¢ 36¢ $696 $582 −$114 (-16%)
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Down 64¢ 73¢ $372 $426 +$54 (+14%)
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Up 38¢ 27¢ $269 $190 −$79 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Down 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Up 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? Up 46¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down on June 2? Up 44¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Up 47¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $554 +$140 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,079 +$192 +18%
Solana Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $388 +$62 +16%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $75 −$48 -64%
Solana Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $25 +$18 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 02 $24 −$24 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $21 +$5 +27%
Solana Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $25 −$24 -96%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$231
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 26¢ $3 22m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 26¢ $3 22m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 26¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 36¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 36¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 38¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 38¢ $7 23m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 28¢ $9 24m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 28¢ $9 24m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 54¢ $17 24m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 54¢ $17 24m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 55¢ $14 24m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 55¢ $10 24m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 55¢ $9 24m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 55¢ $14 24m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 56¢ $23 24m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 56¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 42¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 42¢ $22 24m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 31¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 44¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 45¢ $17 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 45¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 45¢ $19 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 45¢ $9 31m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 29¢ $8 32m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 29¢ $8 32m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 69¢ $8 34m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 69¢ $8 34m
Solana Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 69¢ $6 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.7% +2.8% 75% 75% +8.0%
≤30d 10 -15.8% -23.9% 50% 50% +3.9%
≤90d 10 -15.8% -23.9% 50% 50% +3.9%
all 10 -15.8% -23.9% 50% 50% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 50% +3.9%
10% -31.1% 30% -6.1%
15% -37.8% 10% -15.1%
20% -43.9% 10% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,315.49 · official $3,315.49 (match) · 389 history records